LA Votes is a series of exit polls in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and is the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation. Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen LA Votes projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit poll results for major elections in Los Angeles.
Highlights
2018
In the tight race for LA County sheriff that the LA Times initially said was too close to call, StudyLA accurately predicted Alex Villanueva’s triumph over incumbent Jim McDonnell. When comparing the sample of 1,546 at-poll voters to the certified election results of at-poll voters, StudyLA’s results differed only by 0.2%, well within the ±3.0% margin of error.
2013
StudyLA was the first to call the 2013 election for Mayor Eric Garcetti over then City Controller Wendy Greuel, beating all known professional news outlets in timing and accuracy. When comparing the sample of 1,128 at-poll and vote-by-mail voters to the certified elections results of at-poll and vote-by mail voters, StudyLA’s results differed only by 0.2%, well within the ±3.0% margin of error.
Sampling Methodology
LA Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Racial and ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latina/o voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect racial and ethnic voting patterns reported by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places emphasis on location when it comes to voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living outside of such an enclave.
Reports
For all LA Votes reports, visit our Reports Page.